At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological... world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book... provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.

Calculate with Confidence provides a clear consistent format with a step-by-step approach to the calculation and administration of drug dosages. It... covers the ratio and proportion, formula, and dimensional analysis methods. This popular text focuses on enhancing the learning experience of students at all curricular levels by making content clinically applicable. Concepts relating to critical thinking, logical thinking, and nursing process are presented throughout. New practice problems have been added throughout this edition and rationales for the answers continue to be provided giving the students a better understanding of principles related to drug dosages. This fifth edition addresses the increasing responsibility of nurses in medication and administration; emphasizes the priority for client care, and presents material that reflects the current scope of the nursing practice. A clear and consistent, step-by-step approach to calculations and administration makes it easy to understand.Ratio and Proportion, Formula, and Dimensional Analysis content provides you with well-rounded coverage. Pretest and post-test help identify strengths and weaknesses in competency of basic math before and assess your comprehension after Unit One: Math Review. Points to Remember boxes highlighted in each chapter help you remember important concepts.Critical thinking information that should be applied in the clinical setting to help avoid drug calculation and administration errors is boxed throughout the text. Full-color illustrations, photographs, and drug labels familiarize you with what you'll encounter in the clinical setting. Current recommendations from The Joint Commission and Institute for Safe Medication Practices are followed throughout.Caution boxes identify issues that may lead to medication errors and strengthen actions that must be taken to avoid calculation errors.Tips for Clinical Practice calls attention to information critical to math calculation and patient safety as well as issues related to practice.Rule boxes familiarize students with information needed to accurately solve drug calculation problems.

Calculating Credibility examines-and ultimately rejects-a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion... that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis-not past actions-determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment-sports, gambling, warfare-competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

Calculate drug dosages with confidence! Use this multimedia approach to conquer your fears and master the most common math concepts used in nursing... practice today. The latest edition of this AJN Book of the Year award winner makes learning dosage calculation even reviewing basic math principles fun and easy! The modules on the CD-ROM, including a basic math review, cover exactly what you need to know for class, clinical, the NCLEX, and professional practice. All modules have been updated to emphasize preventing medication errors and safety to meet the National Patient Safety Goals set forth by The Joint Commission. Explore each module at your own pace and then assess what you ve learned with a wealth of practice tests in the included workbook.

AJN Book of the Year 2008 Learning drug calculation is one of a nursing student s most time-consuming and important tasks.... Calculating Drug Dosages, 2nd edition, makes learning dosage calculation even reviewing basic math principles fun and easy! All modules have been updated to address medication errors and safety and the National Patient Safety Goals set forth by JCAHO. Plus, a new software interface presents a bold improvement to an already successful learning tool. It teaches all major methods -- linear ratio and proportion, fractional ratio and proportion, dimensional analysis, and the formula method. Every method can be used for every problem.

An alien shuttle craft lands outside the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto. A six-legged, two-armed alien emerges and says, in perfect English, “Take me... to a paleontologist.” In the distant past, Earth, the alien’s home planet, and the home planet of another alien species, all experienced the same five cataclysmic events at the same time (one example: the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs). Both alien races believe this proves the existence of God: i.e., he’s obviously been playing with the evolution of life on each of these planets. From this provocative launch point, Sawyer tells a fast-paced, morally and intellectually challenging story of ambitious scope and touching humanity. Calculating God is SF on a grand scale.Calculating God is a 2001 Hugo Award Nominee for Best Novel.